Comment · Fri, April 1, 2016 · Ceretropic & Nootropics Depot
Is it true that 50% of what we think about a substance now will be discredited in 15 years time?
Original post in this thread
[deleted] · 0 points
Something that Tim Ferriss ( i think it was on joe rogan) once said has always stuck with me (not a direct quote): never forget to cycle and take breaks because we just don't know what we'll discover about these substances in the coming years. Probably 50% of what we think we know about them will turn out false.
Is that an exaggeration or more or less true?
What they were answering
[deleted] · 1 points
Do you think though that 50% of the conclusions we draw for our health (positive, negative etc) based on published studies will be radically revised to their opposites? For example, we think that X does Y which leads to better health (in terms of R), but we later discover that X has mechanisms which coupled with Y actually leads to damage and that R is actually negligible relative to the damage.
u/MisterYouAreSoDumb · Ceretropic & Nootropics Depot
No, I do not think it is that high from a scientific standpoint. From a popular opinion standpoint, perhaps. However, people too often extrapolate things from studies that really are not based in fact. Could 50% of what you read on health blog sites later be shown to be opposite? Maybe. That's why people are so adamant about the quality of study methods, and not putting too much stake in results, unless they are confirmed by other studies. It's all dependent on the quality of the study methods, and how surely people state the findings.